Research and Reports

Investing for economic growth: ECMA Research 2016

This report considers three different cases for future East Coast Main Line development: the ‘VTEC 2020 Scenario’ (what is proposed anyway, from 2020); ‘Silver Standard’ (“an assessment of the best level of service that could be achieved through conventional upgrades to the existing ECML route”); and Gold Standard, which “represents the further benefits over and above the Silver Standard that the development of the eastern leg of HS2 will bring in the form of reduced journey times and the release of capacity on the conventional network.” The report argues that the best Benefit Cost Ratio (3.33) can be obtained from the ‘Gold Standard’, in which schemes on the East Coast Main Line complement the delivery of HS2. Even so, it says the approach taken has been “conservative” to “avoid any ‘double counting’ with the economic case for HS2”. A less conservative estimate puts the BCR at 5.85.