But the strategy says remarkably little about the manner in which cascaded second-hand stock should be used. So what will happen to the rolling stock that will be displaced, and who will be in charge of it?
We will get a detailed analysis from Tim Burleigh at Eversholt. And we will hear from Northern Rail, which will inevitably be on the receiving end of cascaded stock from southern England.
But first, back to our senior rail industry figure for a forthright off-the-record briefing. Read this, and you’ll know why we’re not naming him… or her!
“There was a stage where the old Strategic Rail Authority had an industry plan. That was dropped. It was deemed not appropriate for the Government to meddle in the rolling stock market. That’s a line which DfT trots out today - they’ve given it to you again. But in fact, they meddle in it all the time.
“And they have to. Electrification is going backwards, so the need to answer the shortfall is getting greater by the day. There is a disconnect between the process of electrification and the supply of trains. The new trains are coming faster than the wires to power them. Who is in charge of this? The DfT.
“That is a problem. DfT does not have the capability and knowledge and experience to perform this function, which is to have a joined-up plan for UK rail. That is why it created the Office of Passenger Rail Services and appointed Peter Wilkinson to help give it the capability to perform this function. Wilkinson holds all the levers of this industry. Directly or indirectly his staff control the whole bloody thing. But ministers try to pretend they don’t, because it’s then easier to bargepole the rest of us when something goes wrong.
“Who writes the ITT for the franchises? The DfT. It is deciding what the future of the rolling stock strategy will have to be by the way it writes each ITT. DfT is front and centre of the strategy.
“Rolling stock strategy should be planned over the 30-year economic life of the train, not the eight or ten years of a passenger franchise, let alone the two or three years of the current short-term extensions. We are locked into this hand-to-mouth existence. Every bidder for every franchise has to comply with whatever the ITT says. We have politicians promising that the North will get rid of rubbish Pacers. DfT is saying to itself: ‘They might be rubbish, but they’re cheap.’ As I said, all roads lead back to the DfT.”
What does the Department make of this? Sorry, folks, all we can do is quote from the two-paragraph statement on offer:
“When proposals arise, such as the transfer of the nine Class 170 trains from TransPennine, officials will work with the industry to help find a solution, but the Department has made it clear that it expects train operators and rolling stock companies ultimately to resolve such situations.”
Government intervention
Certainly there is some Government intervention. Look at Northern Rail, currently in a short-term contract pending the letting of a longer-term franchise.
“We signed our franchise agreement on March 26 and started running it on April 1 last year,” says Northern’s Managing Director, Alex Hynes. Since then we’ve signed two variations to the franchise agreement to bring in more, better and electric trains. It’s not long-term planning. But we get 20 electric trains to operate in the North West when the wires are ready, which they’re not yet. The second variation was a complicated solution between TransPennine and Northern to maintain capacity when the trains are switched from there to Chiltern.
“Rolling stock comes under what are called ‘key contracts’ in the franchise agreement. And you need approval from the Secretary of State to make changes to them.
“The North is used to having to put up with poor-quality rolling stock, sent to us from elsewhere. Northern is the last big TOC to get the massive rolling stock investment it needs. That’s a consequence of it being let on a no-growth, no-investment basis ten years ago.
“DfT is now in the process of procuring the next Northern franchise, and wants it to be completely different. It realises the North deserves better. So let’s assume that’s going to get fixed.”
The rolling stock strategy assumes that electrification will proceed at broadly the current rate for the foreseeable future. Tim Burleigh at Eversholt highlights the franchising hiatus as the biggest hurdle to be overcome before the rail industry can move into what he calls a “steady state” of cascading.
“We’re in a transitional period as a result of the West Coast franchising issue in 2012 and the Great Western franchise that followed it. That, of necessity, has given us some short-term planning headways, which cause some difficulties. They are restricting some of the longer-term possibilities that we all think are best for the industry.
“The reorganisation within DfT is helping. But the delay and uncertainty around some of the electrification has an impact on what is a feasible cascade and what isn’t. If the wires aren’t up, it is impossible to run an EMU unless you pull it with a diesel locomotive, which is not efficient. That is a real challenge.
“In this transition there is a mismatch of availability. The EMUs coming out of Thameslink and Crossrail might be available earlier than the wires are up to use them. Managing growing customer demand is going to be a problem, because for a while there will be no wires and no power supplies. That will be one of the biggest challenges over the next few years, and we are concerned that it will compromise the long-term vision that we all want to have.”
Our nameless senior executive is able to put this more bluntly:
“The electrification timescale is all over the place. It’s going backwards day by day. In a sensible, rational industry we would look longer term. Electrification is not moving far or fast enough that it will release enough diesels to be deployed elsewhere for network growth. We will have to end up buying some new diesel trains at the same time as we spend money on electrification, which is daft. It might mean we can’t even get rid of Pacers.
“IEPs are going to arrive late. They’re going to have to run diesels under where the wires should be for a while. Scotland thinks it’s going to get the old HSTs when they come out of Great Western. It wants to create a mini inter-city network by shortening some of the HST formations. But they can’t get those until IEP is completely done. It is an utter mess.
“We think there’s going to be a surplus of electrics coming, but we’re not sure when. There will only be a genuine market for rolling stock when there is a surplus, and it will be fascinating to see what that does to the price.
“On Crossrail and Thameslink new electrics replace old electrics, so in theory the cost of those should fall. But you can’t run the old electrics if the wires haven’t gone up in time - it’s all out of balance. In the meantime, there is an acute shortage of DMUs, and the ROSCOs can charge whatever they like for them. Train operators - and ultimately taxpayers - just have to pay up.”
The 2015 rolling stock strategy includes a tacit admission that electrification is indeed falling badly behind. It’s the first time this has been officially recognised. From the low, medium and high scenarios of the rate of installation of wires, it adopts the lowest rate. And it warns: “Any reprogramming of the completion dates of the currently planned electrification projects would have adverse consequences for rolling stock:
- Slower achievement of the additional capacity required.
- Higher capital cost and whole-life costs of any new diesel vehicles.
- Incremental costs associated with short initial leases.
- Longer introduction timescales compared with those for new electric vehicles.
- Lower reliability of diesel vehicles.
As this issue of RailReview went to press, it seemed increasingly likely that the first evidence of this will be a small fleet of diesel-only IEP trains to run from Paddington to Penzance, to be specified in a new First Great Western franchise in late March. They are rumoured to be by some margin the most expensive trains to be ordered.
Other options include building new self-powered trains as bi-mode vehicles to future-proof them. The strategy document also suggests that they could be unpowered, to be hauled by either diesel or electric locomotives. But time is tight - whatever solutions are picked, the trains are needed in service by 2020.
With passenger growth consistently exceeding 4% a year, the nominal surplus is likely to be absorbed by the need to increase capacity, doubling up formations. Burleigh explains that an ideal cascade would involve moving an entire fleet of trains from the South to the North in a single move.
“You need a critical mass of a type of rolling stock to build up expertise and maintenance. The more you have, the higher the potential availability. Our suburban fleets are reaching 93% availability, which surpasses that of newer trains. That only happens when you get enough of them in one place, giving passengers predictability and reliability.
“We want to avoid small fleets of varied stock. The guys at Northern Rail are the obvious victims of that - they would really benefit from standardised trains.
“But if you’re moving large-scale fleets of common units from London to the North West, there are very few places that could accept the entire fleet. If you do have to split it, you want to do so to as few places as possible, so that the issues of sharing spares and support equipment are minimised.
“We share this information with the DfT and with franchise bidders. There are short-term problems to overcome, but there is a general recognition by everyone of where we want to be.”
Any deal covering the next decade will entail shunting the older trains from London and the South East to the North, and also to South Wales. Politicians have been quick to criticise this priority given to cushy commuters into London, with their lovely new trains fitted with WiFi, air-conditioning and the latest information systems. But almost two in three passenger journeys are in that part of the country - the investment goes where the future revenue can support it.
“This whole thing about cast-offs: I don’t buy that,” says Northern’s Hynes. “The age of the train is irrelevant - what matters is the condition of the train. Have a look at the Class 455s on South West Trains. Those trains are ancient but they’re brilliant - a transformational refurbishment. The customer environment is good, they’re reliable, and they’re safe. They’re everything a train needs to be.
