In 2015 the number of days lost to labour disputes was 170,000. That compares with 788,000 in the previous year. 2015 was the second least disruptive year since records began in 1893. Over the past 20 years the popularity of strikes has collapsed. In the 1980s it was common for a million working days a year to be lost.
Alongside the decline in strike action, union membership is waning. Perhaps that’s because workers no longer clamber down dangerous mine shafts or work in shambolically-run factories operating machinery unchecked by safety experts. Workers are now more likely to be sat at desks or operating pristine computer-controlled equipment. They can make use of extensive employment laws to seek redress when something goes wrong, or change job more easily than in the past.
The current rail disputes are not about wholesale job losses, nor are they about bringing home enough money to pay the rent and put food on the table. The strikes are about alterations to working arrangements.
Or are they? This is also about unions trying to remain relevant in a changing world. Transport is one of the last industries in which most workers routinely join a union, and where colleagues take issue with those who choose not to do so.
The unions realise that campaigns about money aren’t as necessary as they once were. Train crew are well paid and work short hours. A driver with a few years’ experience and doing voluntary overtime can take home comfortably more than the head teacher of a primary school, an air traffic controller or the pilot of an Easyjet plane - all of whom will have university degrees and postgraduate training.
Driving a train is no longer what we used to call a blue collar job, but one that appeals to people who consider themselves professionally qualified, well above middle income and undoubtedly middle class. There are probably more than a few RMT and ASLEF members who quietly voted Conservative and who wanted to remain in the EU.
So the unions have a fight on their hands to remain useful to their members. GTR keeps on saying there is plenty of well-paid work for any employee who accepts its new conditions.
If GTR wins, expect similar conditions to be a requirement of most future rail franchises. Expect more train doors to be operated by drivers. Expect on-board staff to be about customer service rather than about train dispatch.
If the unions win, expect their role in the industry to be entrenched and their influence increased. Unions exist to protect the jobs, pay and working conditions of their members, and it’s fair to say that on the railway they have excelled at it.
If trains can run without a guard, the RMT loses one of the most important weapons in its armoury during a strike - the ability to stop the service. So if the RMT loses The Battle of Southern Railway, its standing will be significantly weakened. The stakes could hardly be higher. Meanwhile, pity the poor passengers, their stressful and disrupted lives apparently almost an irrelevance in what is turning into a battle for the beating heart of the railway.
