He argues that the financial figures would still look good even if £5bn had to be spent on major improvements.
“£5bn is the cost of a new line from Hampton Court Junction all the way in to Waterloo. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but even if we said it was going to, how are we going to build it? It’s difficult to change a sleeper, let alone build a new line alongside the existing route. So I don’t think we want £5bn.
“I think we want - what we need - is the right strategic interventions. It’s about flyovers in the right places, hardening the asset to ensure it never fails, track as good as it is on the West Coast. It is about making sure Clapham Junction is rebuilt like Reading. Clapham Junction is incredibly busy and desperately needs to be rebuilt and yet it’s not on anyone’s list.”
Challenged that such a rebuild could well consume £5bn, he retorts: “I could see it making what it costs. The land rights around there are worth a fortune. So I don’t have a begging bowl saying ‘can I have more, sir’. This railway has a great ability to do a lot of its financing itself, or to find ways of financing itself. The Clapham example is a great one. What it needs is a plan, and that’s what we’re bringing.”
The jury remains out on the Alliance’s achievements and prospects. The figures in isolation suggest it’s not working, but Shoveller’s arguments that the rot set in before the Alliance arrived holds water.
He reckons he’s putting things right, and dealing with the basics that underpin good performance. But success may create its own problems. Push performance back above 90% and increase passenger satisfaction, and (given recent history) the result is likely to be a further increase in passenger numbers.
Long-term salvation should come with Crossrail 2. This £12bn project plans a new southwest to northeast line under London that will gather services from Twickenham, Shepperton, Hampton Court, Chessington South and Epsom into a tunnel portal near Wimbledon, and then run via Tottenham Court Road (for Crossrail) and King’s Cross/St Pancras before dividing for Alexandra Palace and Cheshunt.
By any measure that’s a major strategic intervention of the sort not seen on the Waterloo route for decades. However, it’s at least 20 years away. Meanwhile, Shoveller and his team, and their successors, will need to be at the top of their game to keep their complex and crowded railway running.
