One advantage to Level 3 is that it does not rely on current infrastructure. A driver could drive a suitable fitted train on a classic line, obeying signals as normal, while ETCS kit runs in the background (clearly without control of traction and brake systems). This means that if NR is to use the Essex Thameside LTS route as a trial, those tests can continue in parallel with normal operation.
England is ambitious: “If we’re to achieve my goal of having the first proper implementation of ETCS at Level 3 in CP6, then having a demonstrator of some description down on Essex Thameside by the end of CP5 sounds like it ought to be possible.”
He adds: “My goal, a bit like Mark’s challenge to me, and I’m not sure how easy it’s going to be, but my goal is that the next project we do with ETCS will be a Level 3 project. I want to get to the point where the first project in CP6 is a Level 3 project, which may be quite a tall order to get ETCS from where it is today (which is not very far) to fully implementable in four years. That’s quite a challenge.”
Involving National Express as the operator of Essex Thameside is obvious, but NR will need co--operation and involvement from all railway companies. England is keen to push the boundaries, but is wary that uncontrolled development could take the project down blind alleys.
“I do want to be somewhat cautious about some of the enthusiasm that we’ll all have about getting some of this stuff out into a lot of places quickly. Because unless we’re sure this technology is really robust and works, it’s not only likely to cause us a lot of problems, it will cost us some money collectively. And it isn’t going to do the cause of the Digital Railway any good if the first thing that people see is something that doesn’t work.”
A further risk lurks in the Digital Railway itself - if it distracts NR’s senior management from the daily job of running the railway (see panel). Having a visionary chief executive is great, but not if he doesn’t have a top-notch chief operating officer fully astride the day job right now.
NR has an incredible amount to do in Control Period 5, which started last April. There are major enhancement programmes such as Great Western and trans-Pennine electrification (with North West electrification having already run into difficulties), major work for Thameslink and Crossrail, Edinburgh-Glasgow improvements (including electrification) and the Northern Hub.
There is also a host of renewals. NR is 52% behind its points renewals plan and its signalling programme is significantly behind schedule, according to ORR. It predicts that NR will not recover the shortfall by the end of 2014/15.
Carne knows this. He wrote in his November quarterly report: “We recognise that we must deliver what we have said we will deliver and our focus is on transforming current performance to deliver the railway our customers require. It is only if we do this that we can focus our attention on the future of the railway, one which will be increasingly digital. This will involve the whole industry and if we are to succeed, how we work with all our stakeholders will be crucial.”
Staff to play key role
He has lost key staff to HS2, and his operations managing director resigned last September. Staff will play a key part in delivering ETCS, and it’s for this reason that England describes the Digital Railway as a change programme enabled by technology, rather than as a technology programme.
“This isn’t about ‘we’ve suddenly had a great new idea for the railway and we’re going to go off and do something completely different’. It is pretty much ‘we have a technical strategy for the railway and we’re putting some real momentum and pace behind it, and instead of letting it take 30, 40 or 50 years before we implement it, let’s get on and do some significant parts of it over the next 10 or 15 years’. That for me is message number one - that this is not something brand new, it is actually implementing faster and quicker and hopefully smarter than what we have already actually agreed on.”
This means taking a huge number of railway staff, at all levels, with him and with Network Rail. It also depends on the ability of the supply chain to cope with a hefty increase in work, in an area of new technology where it has little practical experience.
Says England: “We’ve talked a lot about developing the technology and how we do that. We can still get to the point where we’ve developed the technology, but if we don’t have the capability and capacity within the supply chain in the industry to deliver it, then we’re still not going to be any further ahead.
“From a supply chain point of view, that all ought to be do-able. In a simplistic sense, there ought to be enough suppliers out there, but we still have to go through that process. We still have to convince ourselves that that is the case.
Technology skills
“I think the bigger changes and the bigger challenges are around the people within the industry, and the people who are going to have to manage and operate this technology when it comes in.
“We’ve said with ETCS that we think it’s going to touch around 55,000 people. My guess is that with the Digital Railway, it’s probably getting on for double that - it’s going to be nearer 100,000 people. It will pretty much touch everybody that’s involved with this industry at the moment.
“There will also be a natural turnover, so we’re already bringing in people with those technology skills. But there’s still going to be an awful lot of people who we’re going to have to retrain and reskill to deal with stuff in a different way.”
In case you’re wondering (!), there’s no price yet attached to the Digital Railway, but it’s likely to be large, as are the potential savings. It will ask a great deal of the supply chain, railway staff and Network Rail’s management. It’s the biggest, high risk-high return costly project Network Rail has ever attempted.
