RISING CONSUMER EXPECTATION
Increasing customer expectation is a trend which is both continuing and universal. It is reflected in all aspects of personal retail transaction - from response times to orders, availability of choice, and action on poor service.
One aspect of globalisation of travel is that people experience products and services that are novel to them but normal in other nations, and that too raises expectations. For example, Swiss and German companies now offer Japanese-style heated and washing toilets in their home markets, to satisfy a demand from consumers who have experienced the standards of hygiene considered normal in the Japanese culture.
Another aspect of rising public expectation comes from recognition of the health-damaging impact of poor city air quality, driven by a combination of road transport and buildings’ heating and cooling systems.
The current pandemic has extended this to other aspects of public space hygiene, from air-conditioning quality and filtration to cleanliness of surfaces such as seating and handrails. This is as true of public transport provision as every other public experience.
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY INCLUDING CARBON
The drive to zero net carbon is but one aspect of a wider sustainability agenda.
While governments will encourage and incentivise cleaner cities through elimination of road transport exhaust carbon emissions, a viable alternative fuel to diesel for heavy road transport has yet to be developed.
We know that few sources of renewable energy are suitable for providing guaranteed base load electricity, other than tidal, nuclear or hydroelectric - two of which are geographically dependent and the other technically and culturally problematic.
What is certain is that the cost of energy, however generated, will rise - giving competitive advantage to any company, goods or service which consumes less.
Reliance on battery electrification for road transport will require very high cost investment in charging infrastructure, as well as challenging the world’s ability to source and manufacture the batteries themselves.
Battery production will continue to develop, but will be measured increasingly in terms of its sustainability - not only through the carbon emitted in battery creation, but also through the rapid depletion of finite world resources of key materials. ‘Off-shoring’ carbon-creating manufacture will in time become morally unacceptable.
Vitally, car and van electrification will not address many aspects of air quality in cities, such as tyre particulates which are already becoming unacceptable.
Whole-life sustainability - the ‘circular economy’ whereby greater value is placed on reusable rather than single-use constituent materials - has implications for every aspect of living and built products.
One is reducing the acceptability of frequent replacement of assets rather than their careful upgrade, refurbishment or life extension - whether personally or publicly owned.
AIR TRAVEL
Air travel is (and will continue to be) an innately low-capacity but high-speed transport mode between regions.
Electrification of short hops to connect outlying (often island) communities looks likely, but the laws of physics for traditional short-haul air travel look more challenging.
Meanwhile, the amount of carbon emitted on any air sector is heavily skewed to take-off, and short-haul air will continue to perform less well than electric rail from an operational carbon perspective.
But if the current carbon cost of railway infrastructure - build, renewal and maintenance - is added in, then the argument that rail is greener than domestic aviation is not clear.
Long-haul air travel will only slowly return to pre-pandemic volumes over the coming decade, but therafter may be expected to continue to expand. The economics of long-haul air travel will remain dominated by high-value business and cargo-hold ‘belly’ freight.
The number of European hubs where significant long-haul networks will be accessed will reduce, and in Britain only Heathrow has that potential because of its positioning on the axis to North America.
And while the passenger volumes are low in railway terms, dependable effective rail connectivity will be needed if cities outside London are to be ‘visible’ to global leaders.
