Professor Cole, whose students at the University of South Wales have been involved in work for TrawsCymru, sees the major issue as co-ordination of the networks. A new form of bus franchising is needed, with groups of local authorities forming four or five joint transport authorities under a national transport body. The Travelcard currently being tested would be developed into a national travel card, using the current concessionary pass system to allocate funding.The forthcoming Westminster Buses Bill will enable English local authorities to franchise bus networks and establish multi-modal ticketing, information and marketing. It is still an open question for many local authorities whether they choose franchising or deep partnerships.
In the more rurally located cities there is evidence of apprehension that they will not be able to avail themselves of devolved powers in the same way - partly for want of neighbouring partners.
Sir Peter Soulsby, the city of Leicester’s elected mayor, says it is important for rural areas not to be overlooked. “These proposals make sense in metropolitan areas, but it’s important that differences in local political geography are recognised,” he says
Cambridge is another isolated city, although its phenomenal growth is likely to allay anxiety.
Exeter is served by five railway lines and plans four new stations in the county’s Devon Metro proposal, as well as the re-opening of the line between Bere Alston and Tavistock (if not Okehampton), encouraged by the success of recent initiatives such as the opening of Digby & Towton station on the Exmouth line and more trains.
Full Speed Ahead echoed these concerns for rural areas. However, in Scotland Bill Reeve says it is “in our DNA not to focus just on the Central Belt”. The Highlands and the region’s tourism were well-served by the ScotRail franchise specification, and recent marketing of the Fort William Sleeper has been so successful that carriages have been borrowed from the Aberdeen service.
If there is one area over which many would see national planning as necessary, it is the provision of rolling stock. How else can one achieve economies of scale or sensible cascades of rolling stock?
Yet Joseph believes ROSCOs find devolved bodies better to deal with because they know what they want, set it out clearly and stick with it, backed by sensible long-term deals on funding.
Reeve cites the history of boom and bust in rolling stock procurement, and sees “centralised processes as failing to lead to confidence in the supply base of regular order books that would encourage investment in skills and capacity”.
He adds: “The market for second-hand rolling stock at the end of a first franchise period is ineffective - because leases are usually signed up alongside franchising contracts, the chance of a combination of the right fleet coming off-lease and demand from a franchise is minimal. Growth has meant we are perennially short of rolling stock. I don’t see the current market working well. There has been a risk that trains in which we have invested end up being taken away even though we want to keep them. It also creates inflationary pressure because old rolling stock is being priced just under new, instead of on a depreciated asset basis.
“Devolution allows authorities to look at different ways of financing trains. In Scotland, by the 15- and 20-year underwriting of assets, we benefit from cheaper finance and lease prices as a result, and enjoy price certainty. After the period of underwriting, we have the option to buy the trains for £1. Devolved authorities with responsibility for rolling stock have not followed the DfT leasing model, and I would expect to see a lot more innovation in this area.”
On Merseyrail, Robinson is looking “to procure new trains ourselves because as a public authority we can borrow the money much cheaper than using a ROSCO. Because we operate a bespoke network, we can make sure the trains stay with us for their entire working life. We become an asset steward rather than just leasing from a ROSCO.
“Devolution has strengthened that ability, allowing a more detailed appraisal of the specification and the five offers to build them. The spec is future-proofed so the trains could be converted to dual-voltage traction if services are extended to overhead lines.”
The importance attached to passenger perceptions of trains in achieving modal shift is reflected in the determination of devolved transport authorities to secure new or refurbished trains. TfN’s Brown points to the 10% to 15% growth Northern is reporting from refurbished electric trains on the Liverpool-Manchester route: “Imagine the effect of faster new trains with WiFi in releasing suppressed demand.”
Bray sees synergies developing between devolved networks over the potential for tram-trains, once the Sheffield/Rotherham pilot is up and running. It is not only the attractiveness of trams in persuading people out of cars, but also the ability of tram-trains to free up space at city stations, especially in Leeds and Birmingham where extra capacity is at a premium. Moreover, they are a way of avoiding taking lines off the national network and precluding their use for freight or conventional passenger trains. Both Nexus and Transport for Greater Manchester are interested in extending tram services onto the national network.
Devolution is bound to raise concerns among operators and users of long-distance passenger and freight trains. Their needs are not inimical to the objects of devolution, but need to be kept firmly in mind and safeguarded when devolved decisions are taken.
As Maggie Simpson, executive director of the Rail Freight Group, puts it: “The elements that are necessary are pretty simple. Central control of freight timetabling and control across the network. A financial and regulatory model which enables freight to grow and prosper. And a duty on all parts of the industry - be that devolved Network Rail, franchises or Government - to promote the use of the network for freight. Three asks.”
Merseytravel is leading on TfN’s freight strategy. Peel Ports’ new £350m in-river deepwater berth of Liverpool 2 will be capable of taking post-Panamax vessels, so from being able to accept 5% of the world’s container ships, it will be able to receive 95%. Robinson expects freight through the port to more than double because 60% of the freight currently unloaded at southeast ports is destined for north of Birmingham. “We need new rail capacity, and if we get a new, twin-track rail link between Liverpool and Manchester which also connects directly onto the planned HS2 network this will help free up capacity on the classic network for freight.”
Brown sees freight as a major component of TfN’s strategy: “We have ports on both sides and many logistics centres. We need new rail connections and paths because the last thing we want is more freight on congested motorways.”
There is also anxiety over the way Network Rail might be restructured. It would be unhelpful for any new boundaries not to match those of nascent regional bodies. The area of WMR follows natural boundaries, but some areas are much more difficult to delineate, such as East Anglia. When it comes to responsibility for infrastructure, freight operators might expect public authorities to take a more balanced view of track access than passenger TOCs.
With the exception of Scotland, where services on the two cross-border lines are easily managed, any redrawing of boundaries is fraught with difficulty. Professor Cole points out that the Welsh network, being a reversed E, would be useless without the Chester-Shrewsbury-Hereford-Newport line.
Much of the pressure for changes to NR comes from its uneven project delivery and from the cost of even small jobs because of its overheads, fuelling debate over the balance between economies of scale and the economies of local management. Hobbs says TfL deals with three NR zones now, and wants a seamless integration of new services such as Crossrail. He adds: “Response times are quicker when there are fewer people to phone when something goes wrong.”
To what extent will devolution prompt a rethink about the appropriate balance of investment between road and rail, given the overarching goal of carbon reduction, air quality improvements and other desirable outcomes? There is still evidence of a bias towards road spending in some areas, despite it exacerbating the very problems transport investment is supposed to be tackling.
An eye-watering £3bn is being spent on the A9 in an environmentally sensitive area of Scotland, rather than improving the capacity of the Highland Main Line to accommodate 28-container trains and more frequent services by judicious extending of passing loops and more doubling. (In the early 1980s, £200m was lavished on the same road - in 1982 the entire BR Scottish Region investment budget was £8.6m.) In comparison, Transport Scotland’s Control Period 5 specification included a Highland Main Line upgrade project, and the ScotRail franchise specification required improvements to intercity rolling stock which will lead to refurbished HSTs being introduced on faster timetables.
In Wales there is criticism of the decision to spend £1.5bn on the 15-mile M4 relief road around the south of Newport, in comparison with the rail projects that sum would fund. Besides worsening pollution in the area, the road has been criticised by Associated British Ports, which believes the plans could jeopardise future investment in the area. Critics argue that park-and-ride stations, coupled with the South Wales Metro plans, would relieve congestion on the current M4 and reduce pollution at less cost.
Bray recognises the political challenges of traffic restraint, but nevertheless air pollution and the desire for more liveable city environments are rocketing up the agenda. Manchester’s interim mayor Tony Lloyd believes that “if we are going to do something serious about the carbon footprint in Greater Manchester and the 2,000 premature deaths caused by air pollution, then it’s by reducing the number of cars, lorries and polluting vehicles we have on the roads.”
CBT’s Joseph adds: “Good companies are deterred from investing in cities with poor air quality, and that will drive electrification and other things such as Nottingham’s trams and its large electric bus fleet, which are part of a broader strategy to reduce carbon and cars in the city.”
Far-sighted mayors can also do things that parties are reluctant to enact - Bristol’s mayor has driven through bus priority schemes, 20mph zones and residents’ parking.
Reeve believes devolution will bring about fundamental change in the analysis and planning of transport projects: “The DfT has investment selection criteria led by Treasury Green Book economic analysis, calculating benefit:cost ratios and ranking schemes. It has strengths, but it doesn’t capture everything - there is no methodology for monetising many of the benefits you wish to realise. Viewed from London with restricted appraisal criteria and a narrow set of investment objectives focused on transport rather than wider benefits, you will never get the same decisions as you would if they are devolved to people with greater local knowledge and authority to give effect to it.”
