Opinions changed!
“I feel slightly more positive,” commented Elaine Greenwood of ESG (a company, let’s not forget, owned by Deutsche Bahn). “I thought Brexit would be very messy. After a sensible discussion I can now see the potential for some benefits.”
Her view was echoed by others on the panel.
Len Porter: “I was quite surprised to hear from everyone that Brexit may not have the severity of impact that many of us thought. It is a challenge that needs to be managed. It doesn’t feel such a negative thing.”
Tammy Samuel: “If the industry is going to carry on largely unaffected by Brexit, we need to get that out there. The last thing the railway needs is more uncertainty. We have had so many reviews, so many flip-flops, so many franchising stops and restarts. The best thing that can come out of this is that we carry on more or less as we are now. Any change should be gradual.”
Stephen Joseph: “I think the divergence of standards issue is very important. We need to ensure that it does not hinder the opportunity to increase the export of rail expertise and services. And the potential changes to rules governing state aid also present a possibility for new ways of funding, especially for devolved government.”
The UK is Europe’s most liberalised market. It is seen as fair. Should the UK Government become more protectionist following Brexit, this could be a way to encourage UK jobs. But the negative effect of discouraging international suppliers was seen by the panel as the greatest danger in the new economic order.
The panel’s key conclusion was that when we go from EU standards to UK standards there is a significant risk that we screw around with the system as a whole. We could keep the bits we want and discard some we don’t. But we could realise afterwards that we have messed up a whole system that actually works quite well.
There was no clarity about how Brexit will proceed. The Prime Minister has repeated the mantra of “Brexit means Brexit” without yet defining the meaning. And Brexit Minister David Davies has suggested it is unlikely Britain will remain part of the single market.
But if the industry does not lobby for its interests from the earliest opportunity, it risks losing out.
The panel called for a clearer focus and greater leadership from the Rail Delivery Group. An integrated system-wide approach to the challenges posed by Brexit is needed. Network Rail and other components of the rail system should be encouraged not to act in isolation as they seek to adapt to the new environment.
Brexit is seen as neither a good nor a bad step for the industry. Compared with shipping, aviation and road transport, the effects are expected to be less significant. It presents some positive opportunities, offering a catalyst for changes that were likely anyway. It should not be used as an excuse if those opportunities are not taken.
