The rail industry is not the only sector where some forecasters are predicting problems with the rise of Connected & Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs). If you listen to some, there will be no need for motor insurance in the future! Fortunately. these forecasts are just that - a view of what some individuals think might happen. There are other views I think both our industries would prefer.
A KPMG report commissioned by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders predicted that by 2030 a commitment by the UK Government to autonomous driving could drive vehicle production up to 2.4 million per year (from 1.6 million), with the overall positive effect to the economy being £51 billion. Drifting further to the even less predictable future, by 2040 this amount “could be as high as £121bn”. Unsurprisingly the sight of these sorts of numbers piqued Government interest and a commitment was made to make the UK a world leader in developing CAVs.
As part of Government funding being made available, AXA joined consortia looking to promote this vision, alongside interested parties including consultants, Robotics Labs, First Bus Company in Bristol and the Williams F1 Team. More rounds of investment followed and AXA is now part of three separate consortia (Venturer, UK Autodrive and Flourish).
I mention this detail, as hopefully it gives credibility to the comments that follow. These are views garnered from working with people who are testing and implementing the latest technology, and preparing products (both physical and financial) for this future world. Hopefully readers will be pleased to hear that our discussions have focused on CAVs not replacing all buses, trains and other modes of transport, but instead contributing to a much improved transport infrastructure where each individual element communicates with the others and forms a seamless, customer-friendly solution.
While some people feel that CAVs will reduce congestion on roads, others suggest that the flexibility and efficiency will drive up vehicle numbers, counteracting much of the perceived good. Different models of ownership will come in to play - we talk a lot about the ‘Sharing Society’, and the idea of my own car popping off on other journeys rather than sitting aimlessly in a rail car park all day, and then just ensuring it’s back when needed, does have both a moral and economic appeal. I also fundamentally believe that style of operation will improve the appeal of the train-based part of the journey as well.
People worry about the autonomous aspect, but maybe don’t think enough about the benefit of being ‘connected’. As well as driving itself, receiving information from traffic lights, other road users, the rail network and so on all contribute to a much better customer outcome than we currently experience.
Driverless cars are coming, sooner than many people think, but we shouldn’t fear them or feel threatened. Instead, I would recommend any industry predicted to be affected gets on board with the many initiatives, and helps contribute to a world with safer roads, less accidents, and with different but still thriving business models.
